Friday is Groundhog Day Economic

Friday is Groundhog Day Economic

As the country slept in it, Jesus Crucifixion holiday thanks (related to financial markets), the This is the most important time of the start of economic data (such as the media would have you believe), or at least from Claudius Nero Kaiser announced that the Republic will be released.

It was 8:30 am Eastern time, employment in the country will be published in the largest evidence so far led to the stock market has accurately predicted the economy is improving, or whether the groundhog saw his shadow economy, leaving us for more bad weather. This consensus is an increase of 190,000 jobs last month. A premise, but: The Government has commissioned an Army, the size of the Roman army to scour the countryside looking for every American. If the number is larger than the rally would be considered reasonable. When it comes to short-term, there will be hell to pay.

Stock Market Update
In the short term, the stock market seems overbought technology based on the urgent need for an adjustment. The problem is that buying a super-state can persist for some time. In the long run, however, the basic technology is very real, and not as it's intended to let up in the near future. We all know that tidal rapid changes in the well-being can open a heart pain, so it is so important here is the real expert, or ensure that you and other people who know what they are doing.

The best thing for it to market is pessimistic individual investors to continue, because we still have not seen the typical excited and buying frenzy took place near the market peak. Only one third of Americans, according to recent Bloomberg survey, that the countries on the right track. Less than one tenth of that, they think the economy will be strong again in a year. Only 4 of Americans who cut spending during the recession and now they are confident enough to open their wallets. All this screaming and the stock market, gross domestic product growth of 5.9%. I like it!

Market will likely continue to slowly rise, we still are three key elements of increased stock market: liquidity, lower interest rates and higher investor pessimism. Once the public began to embrace the bull market, a rebound can eat their own for a while. More than three U.S. dollars money-market funds yield almost 0% 1 trillion U.S. dollars, is definitely has the potential of fuel. However, when the public finally hit the board, you will want to have this out exit strategy.

Interest Rate Update
Rising interest rates may be a late warning shots should not be ignored. If the economy is strong, interest rates will have to rise. If weak, interest rates will rise, the dollar due to government spending comparable to the weakening of the Banana Republic of the best. Have you ever thought, we have so much in common with Zimbabwe?

Bond update
As I mentioned above, the rampant suspicion is booming, and investors continue to inject liquidity into the bond fund. Last month, close to about 3,690 billion in bond funds, equity of not less than 24 billion U.S. dollars. This is a ratio of more than 15 years of age, one in favor of bonds. Considering this, we are likely to see is a relaxed currency debt in the end, because most investors are not the correct duration. Short-term bonds should continue to be a good person.

We can still find more than 7% of the bond yields due in 2 to 4 years. I do not want to be here long-term bond interest rates have no place to go but up. Bond investors beware: The state funds will suffer the most.

Economic Update
You can not borrow your way out of the debt crisis, period. This also applies to a family or a nation. And, because too many families have found today, if you lose your job you may lose your home. What is a very reputable people are now bankrupt and / or walk from their homes, because all the bad subprime mortgage market ready to return home to apply. This price decrease, resulting in the construction industry to wither the whole family, but hurt the related businesses, causing more people to lose their jobs, abandon their homes … and a variety of vicious circle continues until you have more young in the economic life of the peak in their consumption patterns. With the aging baby boomers, this is not coming years.

Investment Strategy
At best, a successful investment can seem a daunting endeavor. Today, it is a more challenging medium-term outlook is quite positive, but more short points, a possible amendments. Investment options seem difficult: to postpone new purchases and risk missing further rally or buy a clear warning signs, despite the long-lasting correction and risk may be greater than expected.

Unfortunately, investors can not take a long time either in cash or CD, because they are guaranteed to lose purchasing power. We must find the right strategy, the participation of enterprises, but in the protection of the ups and downs. It is essential that investors have a positive combination, to obtain the possible risks, but also an actively adapt to changing conditions for at least the best return.